Event calendar — the moments not to be placing a market order
Fed decisions, US inflation and jobs data, options expiry, the weekly close and the halving — the scheduled volatility. Each one converted to your clock with a line on why a beginner should care.
Reading the calendar…
Past releases — good or bad for the market?
Every event above lands here once it has happened, graded green (good), grey (normal) or red (bad) for crypto, with the forecast and the actual number.
How to use the calendar
Not to predict direction — nobody knows which way the CPI print sends price — but to avoid being the liquidity. Spreads widen and books thin in the minute before a scheduled release; a resting stop a few dollars away gets swept and price comes back. The liquidity clock shows the same thing for the daily rhythm; this page shows the scheduled spikes. If a trade idea only works if you enter during the FOMC press conference, it is not a trade idea.
How to read each release — good, normal or bad
Tip: tap How to read it on any event above to open its card right there.
One rule first: the market reacts to the surprise, not the number. Every release has a consensus forecast (on any economic calendar, e.g. Investing.com or ForexFactory). A hot number that was expected moves nothing; a mild number that beats the forecast by a wide margin moves everything. Read the actual figure against the forecast, then use the cards below. The past releases column above shows this done for every event we have listed. “Good” and “bad” here mean how crypto, trading as a risk asset, usually takes it in the first hour — not where price ends the week.
US CPI — inflation
Look at core CPI month-on-month (excludes food and energy) and compare it with the forecast. Headline year-on-year gets the headlines, but core m/m is what the Fed and the market trade.
- Core m/m 0.1 pp or more below forecast
- Core m/m at 0.2% or lower (pace consistent with the 2% target)
- YoY falling toward 2%
- Core m/m equal to forecast (often 0.2–0.3%)
- Price spikes, then gives most of it back within the hour
- Core m/m 0.1 pp or more above forecast
- Core m/m at 0.4% or higher
- YoY rising for a second month
Why: cooler inflation → more room for rate cuts → weaker dollar → risk assets bid. Hotter inflation does the reverse.
US jobs report — payrolls, unemployment, wages
Three numbers in one release: non-farm payrolls (jobs added), the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings (wage growth, m/m). Read them together — the market wants a job market that is cooling slowly, not collapsing.
- Payrolls 25–100k below forecast — cooling, not collapsing
- Wages 0.2–0.3% m/m or below forecast
- Unemployment flat or up 0.1 pp
- Payrolls within 25k of forecast, or above it by less than 100k
- Wages at forecast
- Unemployment unchanged
- Too hot: payrolls 100k+ above forecast and wages 0.4%+ m/m → fewer cuts
- Too cold: payrolls negative or unemployment up 0.2 pp+ → recession fear can turn the first “rate-cut” pop into a sell-off
Revisions to the previous two months often matter as much as the headline — a big downward revision is a weak report in disguise.
FOMC — the Fed rate decision
The decision itself is usually already priced in (check the market-implied odds on CME FedWatch before the meeting). What moves price is anything different from what was priced: the decision, the “dot plot” of future rates (March, June, September, December meetings), and the tone of the press conference 30 minutes later.
- A cut, or a cut signalled, that the market had not fully priced
- Dots showing more cuts than before
- Chair says inflation is “moving toward target”
- Decision exactly as priced (odds above ~85% beforehand)
- Dots little changed
- A spike at 18:00/19:00 UTC that reverses during the press conference
- A hold when a cut was expected, or a surprise hike
- Dots showing fewer cuts than before
- Chair stresses inflation is “still too high” or “not in a hurry”
The statement and the press conference can point in opposite directions. The first move is often wrong — this is the event to watch, not trade.
Options expiry (Deribit)
Not a data release, so there is no good or bad number. Look at open interest by strike and the “max pain” price (where most options expire worthless) on Deribit or Coinglass.
- After expiry, price breaks out of the range it was pinned in and the move holds
- Price drifts toward the biggest strike / max-pain level into 08:00 UTC, then volatility returns over the next day
- Monthly expiries usually pass quietly
- A large quarterly expiry with price far from max pain — sharp, two-sided moves around 08:00 UTC that stop out both sides
Quarterly expiries (last Friday of March, June, September, December) are several times larger than monthly ones.
Weekly candle close
Read where the body closes relative to the level that matters on your chart (last week’s high/low, a range edge, a moving average) — wicks do not count.
- Close above a level it had been rejected from (a breakout that held for a full week)
- Higher high and higher low than the previous week
- Close inside last week’s range — nothing changed
- Close below a support it had been holding
- Lower high and lower low than the previous week
Sunday-night moves just before the close are thin-liquidity moves; judge the closed candle, not the last hour before it.
Bitcoin halving
The date is an estimate (it moves with block times); the effect is slow. New supply per block is cut in half, which historically showed up in price months later, not on the day.
- Steady or rising hash rate after the halving — miners absorbed the cut
- No meaningful move on the day itself — the event is long known and priced
- Hash rate falling sharply for weeks — miners switching off and selling reserves
Past cycles peaked roughly 12–18 months after a halving, but four data points are not a law. Treat it as context, not a signal.
These are rules of thumb for how markets usually react, written for beginners. They are not trade signals: the first reaction to a release reverses often enough that the safest use of this page is to stand aside for the 30 minutes around it.
Questions people ask
Which events are on the calendar?
Scheduled ones only: FOMC decisions from the Federal Reserve's published calendar, US CPI and jobs reports from the BLS schedule, the monthly Deribit options expiry (last Friday, 08:00 UTC, rule-based), the weekly candle close and the Bitcoin halving estimate from the live block height. Nothing unscheduled — earnings, hacks and listings are news, not calendar.
Why do macro events matter for crypto?
Because since 2020 Bitcoin has mostly traded as a risk asset: rate expectations move the dollar and equities, and crypto follows within minutes. The FOMC statement and the CPI print are the two moments a beginner should simply not be placing a market order.
What is options expiry and why the last Friday?
Deribit, the largest crypto options venue, settles monthly and quarterly contracts on the last Friday of the month at 08:00 UTC. Large open interest at round strikes can pin price into the expiry and release it afterwards. Quarterly expiries (March, June, September, December) are the big ones.
Are the times right for my location?
Times are stored in UTC and converted with your device's time zone, daylight-saving included. US releases move by an hour in UTC when American clocks change (early November and mid-March).