Bitcoin halving countdown — and the network behind it
The next halving happens at a block number, not a date. This page reads the live block height, counts the blocks to go and converts them to an estimate using the network’s actual current block time — then shows the fees, hashrate and difficulty that decide what mining looks like on the other side.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- The halving is set by a block number. Every 0.1 minute of average block time moves the estimated date by about 5.6 days — on 3 October 2026 the estimate jumped 45 days in one hour.
- After 2028 new issuance is about 0.40% a year of supply, down from 12.5% after the first halving. Our arithmetic from the 210,000-block rule.
- The highest daily close came 371 to 546 days after each of the four halvings — but the size of the move shrank from 93× to 30×, 7.9× and 1.9×. Bitstamp daily closes, our calculation.
- In 2026 Bitcoin closed below its halving-day price for the first time in any cycle: a low of $58,526 on 30 June 2026 against $64,990 on 20 April 2024.
Reading the chain…
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Progress through the current halving epoch
What is the Bitcoin halving?
The Bitcoin halving is the moment the reward for mining a new block is cut in half, which happens every 210,000 blocks — roughly every four years. Bitcoin issues new coins only through that reward, so each halving halves the flow of new supply on a schedule fixed in the software.
The reward started at 50 BTC in 2009. The four halvings so far landed in 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024, which is why the subsidy is now 3.125 BTC. Total supply approaches 21 million and the subsidy reaches zero around the year 2140, after which miners are paid by fees alone. The countdown above is the arithmetic of that rule applied to the block the network is on right now.
| Halving | Block | Date | Subsidy before → after |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 210,000 | 28 Nov 2012 | 50 → 25 BTC |
| 2nd | 420,000 | 9 Jul 2016 | 25 → 12.5 BTC |
| 3rd | 630,000 | 11 May 2020 | 12.5 → 6.25 BTC |
| 4th | 840,000 | 20 Apr 2024 | 6.25 → 3.125 BTC |
| 5th | 1,050,000 | estimated above | 3.125 → 1.5625 BTC |
When is the next Bitcoin halving, and why is the date only an estimate?
The next halving is at block 1,050,000, which on 3 October 2026 pointed to the spring of 2028. Any date is an estimate because blocks arrive about every ten minutes on average, not on a timetable, so the countdown recalculates it from the network’s actual recent block time.
Here is how much that matters. On the morning we checked, the chain was at block 969,710, leaving 80,290 blocks. At a textbook 10 minutes a block that is 557.6 days, or 12 April 2028. At the 10.2-minute average the network was actually running, it is 568.7 days, or 24 April 2028 — twelve days later. Each 0.1 minute of average block time shifts the date by about 5.6 days, which is why any site quoting one fixed halving date two years out is guessing.
We watched it happen. An hour after the screenshot below, with 80,287 blocks left, the recent average had dropped to 9.4 minutes and the same countdown read 10 March 2028 — 45 days earlier than it had said at breakfast. Neither number is wrong; a short-window average is noisy, and the estimate settles as the halving gets closer.
How much new Bitcoin does each halving remove?
Each halving cuts daily issuance in half: from 450 BTC a day now to about 225 BTC after block 1,050,000. At the 3 October 2026 daily close of $84,588 on Binance, that is about $38.1 million of new coins a day today and $19.0 million after the cut.
The more useful number is issuance as a share of coins already in existence, because that is the inflation rate a holder is diluted by. We worked it out from the 210,000-block rule alone, assuming 144 blocks a day:
| Period | Subsidy per block | New BTC per day | New BTC per year | Supply at start | Annual issuance vs supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012–2016 | 25 BTC | 3,600 | 1,314,000 | 10,500,000 | 12.5% |
| 2016–2020 | 12.5 BTC | 1,800 | 657,000 | 15,750,000 | 4.17% |
| 2020–2024 | 6.25 BTC | 900 | 328,500 | 18,375,000 | 1.79% |
| 2024–2028 (now) | 3.125 BTC | 450 | 164,250 | 19,687,500 | 0.83% |
| After block 1,050,000 | 1.5625 BTC | 225 | 82,125 | 20,343,750 | 0.40% |
“Supply at start” is the scheduled total at each halving block (210,000 blocks × each earlier subsidy). Real supply is a little lower because a few early rewards were never claimed, and real blocks run slightly faster or slower than 144 a day.
The cut that mattered for supply already happened. The first halving took annual issuance from 25% of supply to 12.5%; the fifth will take it from 0.83% to 0.40%. A trader who expects the 2028 halving to squeeze supply the way 2012 did is reading the same headline about a very different number.
What did Bitcoin’s price do after each halving?
After all four halvings Bitcoin made its highest close of the following two years between 371 and 546 days later. What changed every time was the size of that rise: from the halving-day price it was about 93 times after 2012, 30 times after 2016, 7.9 times after 2020 and 1.9 times after 2024.
We pulled every Bitstamp BTC/USD daily close from November 2012 to 3 October 2026 and measured each cycle the same way: the close on halving day, the highest close in the next 730 days, and the lowest close after that peak before the next halving (or up to today for the current one).
| Halving | Close that day | One year later | Highest close within 2 years | Days to it | Multiple | Fall from that high, before next halving |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov 2012 | $12.22 | +8,190% | $1,132 · 4 Dec 2013 | 371 | 92.6× | −84.9% (to $171, Jan 2015) |
| 9 Jul 2016 | $648 | +286% | $19,188 · 16 Dec 2017 | 525 | 29.6× | −83.4% (to $3,180, Dec 2018) |
| 11 May 2020 | $8,572 | +562% | $67,559 · 8 Nov 2021 | 546 | 7.9× | −76.7% (to $15,766, Nov 2022) |
| 20 Apr 2024 | $64,990 | +31% | $124,728 · 6 Oct 2025 | 534 | 1.9× | −53.1% so far (to $58,526, 30 Jun 2026) |
Source: Bitstamp public OHLC API, daily closes in UTC, pulled 3 Oct 2026; our calculation. Bitstamp is used because it is the one major venue with prices back to 2012. Binance BTC/USDT, used in the charts below, differs by a few dollars per day.
Two things in that table are easy to miss. First, the timing held up better than the size: four peaks in a 175-day window, while the multiple fell by roughly two-thirds or more each cycle. Second, the current cycle did something the first three did not — its post-peak low on 30 June 2026 was below the halving-day close. Anyone who bought on halving day in April 2024 and held was underwater two years later, which never happened in 2012, 2016 or 2020.
Does the halving make the price go up?
No — the halving cuts new supply but creates no new demand, and it is the most widely known date in the market, so it is priced by people who trade it years ahead. What it gives a trader is a fact about supply, not a date to buy.
The past cycles show rises that arrived with long lags and drawdowns of 53–85% in between. Four data points do not make a law, and the shrinking multiples in the table above are a warning against treating them as one. If you plan around the cycle at all, plan the drawdown first: the drawdown recovery calculator shows that the 53.1% fall of 2025–26 needs a gain of about 113% just to get back to the high. The long-term method on this site, the SuperShark Cycle Method, sizes positions for exactly that kind of fall rather than for the rally.
When is the halving story wrong?
The halving story is wrong whenever something bigger than new supply is moving the price. With issuance now under 1% a year, demand shocks dwarf the halving: the 2024 cycle’s rally started months before the halving, after US spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in January 2024, and the year after the halving returned only 31%.
- It is wrong as a timing tool when you need precision: a 175-day spread between cycle peaks is half a year of being early or late.
- It is wrong as a size forecast: every cycle has paid less than the one before, and the fourth gave back all of its post-halving gain.
- It is right as a supply fact: the schedule has never changed, and block 1,050,000 will cut issuance to 225 BTC a day whatever the price does.
What does the halving do to miners?
For miners the halving is a cost shock: revenue per block halves overnight while electricity does not. That is why hashrate and the difficulty adjustment sit on this page — they show whether the network absorbed the last cut. When we checked on 3 October 2026 the 3-day average hashrate was 982 EH/s and the next difficulty adjustment was expected at +0.02%, so the network had fully absorbed the 2024 halving. Fees show how much of a miner’s income already comes from transactions rather than the subsidy. The mechanics behind these numbers, and why they matter for price discovery, are in Lesson 5.
What mistakes do traders make around the halving?
| Mistake | What actually happens |
|---|---|
| Buying the week of the halving and expecting a quick rise | The highest close came 371–546 days later, and in 2024 the price fell 17% within five months of halving day. |
| Using the last cycle’s multiple as a target | The multiple went 92.6× → 29.6× → 7.9× → 1.9×. Projecting the old number forward has been wrong every time. |
| Quoting one fixed date for the next halving | The date drifts with block time; about 5.6 days for every 0.1 minute of average block time. |
| Treating the cycle as a reason for leverage | Every cycle included a fall of more than half. At 2× leverage a 50% fall wipes out the position. See leverage and margin. |
Questions people ask
What is the Bitcoin halving?
Every 210,000 blocks — roughly four years — the reward paid to miners for each new block is cut in half. It started at 50 BTC in 2009, fell to 25 in 2012, 12.5 in 2016, 6.25 in 2020 and 3.125 in April 2024. The next cut, to 1.5625 BTC, happens at block 1,050,000.
When is the next Bitcoin halving?
At block 1,050,000. On 3 October 2026 that was 80,290 blocks away — 12 April 2028 at exactly ten minutes a block, and anywhere from early March to late April 2028 at the block times seen that day. The countdown on this page recalculates the date from the live block height, so the estimate moves as the network does.
Does the halving make the price go up?
It reduces new supply — after 2028 about 225 BTC a day instead of 450 — but it does not create demand, and it is priced in by people who trade it years ahead. After each of the four halvings the highest close came 371–546 days later, but the rise shrank from about 93× to 1.9×, and in 2026 the price fell below its 2024 halving-day close.
How many Bitcoin halvings are left?
Twenty-nine. The reward is counted in satoshis and halved by dropping the remainder, so it reaches zero after the 33rd halving, at block 6,930,000, around the year 2140. Four have happened, so the fifth, at block 1,050,000, leaves 28 more after it.
What are the fee numbers?
The fee in satoshis per virtual byte currently recommended for confirmation in the next block, within 30 minutes and within an hour, converted to dollars for a typical 140-vB transaction at the live price. Fees are what miners earn once the subsidy is small.
What is the difficulty adjustment?
Every 2,016 blocks the network re-tunes how hard mining is so blocks keep arriving about every ten minutes regardless of hashrate. The progress bar shows how far through the current 2,016-block window we are and the change the next adjustment is expected to make.